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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED

MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED

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1 MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:49 am

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I guarantee you a big market fall. 
Exit Immediately !!!
Buyers - wait till 2020



Maharaja

2 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:55 pm

dsam

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Maharaja wrote:I guarantee you a big market fall. 
Exit Immediately !!!
Buyers - wait till 2020



Maharaja
the way market is moving,i feel Maharaja is correct.

3 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:31 pm

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@dsam wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:I guarantee you a big market fall. 
Exit Immediately !!!
Buyers - wait till 2020



Maharaja
the way market is moving,i feel Maharaja is correct.

I think this is a set game by some manipulators  to collect at low level by making panic among poor retailers,  good example LDEV yesterday  traded over 400,000 shares @ 6/40 today they bought it down to 6/= by trading 33,000 shares. My advice is for retailers don`t get panic market will change in any movements.

4 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:07 pm

Ryan Hudson


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Market will crash, but ultimately what happens is panic fellows will lose, rich will become richer and poor guys will become poorer, the market can crash but companies will strengthen further, so dont panic buy little by little and collect, diversify portfolio you never lose

5 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:01 pm

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Market crash prediction by Maharaja is based on the prevailing political uncertainty in the country. But we never had stability over the past three and half years with infighting among the coalition partners which intensified after startling revelations following country's biggest financial scam, the Bond scam. We are all aware of that. 

The chances are that at the General election that is going to be held in the not too distant future there is going to be a certain change that will give a big boost to the Share Market. 

This is a good time to buy and reap the benefits in about one and half to two years. Perhaps the chances may be there for the artificially driven property market to crash at the same time. So, this is the time to divest and invest in the CSE. I am in no doubt that Maharaja is going to buy big time after creating a perpetual panic which also can amount to another scam.

6 Learn it and stay alive on Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:49 am

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Ryan Hudson wrote:Market will crash, but ultimately what happens is panic fellows will lose, rich will become richer and poor guys will become poorer, the market can crash but companies will strengthen further, so dont panic buy little by little and collect, diversify portfolio you never lose
Good one Ryan   sunny
 
I said this many time and I will say it again...... If you are a new comer or struggling to survive in the current market this tips will help you to make some profit and continue in the CSE.
 
The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) has 299 companies as at 29th March 2018 and before you pick a share to invest do your own analysis first.
1. Pick 50% for long term investment and remaining for mid and short term, once you become a master you can do day trading(use Margin trading facility for day trading)too.
2.Use all the tools and support you can get before you pick a share cause end of the day it is all your hard earned money.
3.Never pick a share when the price going up/just because your broker said/you heard a news from some one or in a forum/pick blindly or having a wild guess without a proper analysis.
3.Go through the quarter reports, technical and other reports and also check what is the message CEO gives about the future of the company.
..............
4.After you pick a share do not be greedy, sell with a reasonable profit.
5. Never sell when share price going down.Specially there are many games and manipulations going on in the market and you should not loose your hard earned money.
6.Don't blame anyone if you pick and invest in bad share, if you did your analysis right you will end it up in the profit making side.
7.Do not buy and sell at once, lets say you want to sell 10000 shares, break it to 2-3 or accordingly cause, if you try to buy or sell at large amounts price might drops.

.................
I bought LDEV @ 6 and currently price went 5.80 and 6.40, I am planing to sell 50% @ 7.50 and other 50% @8... if it reach my target soon I will sell or I can wait for next 2 quarters.......
sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny

Today seems to be a good day for CSE and hope coming weeks it would be Green and up. Be brave/take few risks/do your own analysis and ask some one you trust when you investing..... Good luck.

7 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:05 pm

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Eugine Fernando wrote:
@dsam wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:I guarantee you a big market fall. 
Exit Immediately !!!
Buyers - wait till 2020



Maharaja
the way market is moving,i feel Maharaja is correct.

I think this is a set game by some manipulators  to collect at low level by making panic among poor retailers,  good example LDEV yesterday  traded over 400,000 shares @ 6/40 today they bought it down to 6/= by trading 33,000 shares. My advice is for retailers don`t get panic market will change in any movements.
Agreed on Eugine Shocked
Today seems to be wiping out most of the shares @lowest price  affraid
Next week market might be green again Basketball Basketball Basketball

8 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:53 pm

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Members love when I say Market will rise. But hate when I say it will fall.

Maharaja can see the future. And I see a bad future for this market.

Worst is yet to arrive. Sell now and disappear. Market will fall a great fall. 
Can be the biggest fall.

My advise - sell everything- whole portfolio !

Maharaja

9 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:35 pm

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
BAD NEWS FOR REAL ESTATE SECTOR

Property bubble is likely to burst long before anticipated.

SRI LANKA'S PROPERTY BUBBLE IS NEAR THE PIN!

10 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:03 pm

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Maharaja wrote:I guarantee you a big market fall. 
Exit Immediately !!!
Buyers - wait till 2020



Maharaja
Maharaja's Conspiracy exposed:

Maharaja is telling to exit immediately and at the same time advising buyers to wait till 2020. So, who will buy now? It has to be him. 

11 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:59 pm

ranferdi

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@samaritan wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:I guarantee you a big market fall. 
Exit Immediately !!!
Buyers - wait till 2020



Maharaja
Maharaja's Conspiracy exposed:

Maharaja is telling to exit immediately and at the same time advising buyers to wait till 2020. So, who will buy now? It has to be him. 
 Maharaja Tobe Renamed AS MR...

http://::::THIS EMAIL DOESNT WORK.. PLEASE CONTACT ME ON FB ACCO

12 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:28 pm

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ranferdi wrote:
@samaritan wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:I guarantee you a big market fall. 
Exit Immediately !!!
Buyers - wait till 2020



Maharaja
Maharaja's Conspiracy exposed:

Maharaja is telling to exit immediately and at the same time advising buyers to wait till 2020. So, who will buy now? It has to be him. 
 Maharaja Tobe Renamed AS MR...
 I WOULD LIKE TO ASK MR.MAHARAJA TO WHOM YOU ARE WORKING FOR? SL STOCK MARKET WON`T CRASH  AS YOU WISH,  DEAR FORUM MEMBERS DON`T BELIVE WHAT MR SAYS, AND DON`T GET PANIC. I TELL YOU WHY, DO YOU ALL KNOW LAST TWO WEEKS AND THE LAST TWO DAYS, FOREIGN PURCHASES ARE MORE THAN FORIGN SALES. FOREIGN PURCHASES THOSE PERIOD WAS RS.3,443,754,913 AND SALES RS.3,097,697,783 THERE WAS NET INFLOW OF RS.346,057,130. THE PRESENT MARKET SENTIMENT IS ARTIFICIALLY CREATED BY SOME ORGANIZED GROUP, THIS MR ALSO ONE OF THE  MEMBER OF THAT GROUP. POOR  RETAIL INVESTORS GOT COUGHT TO THIS TRAP., FOR THIS SOME BROCKERS ALSO INVOLVED., THEY USE MARGIN CALL TO ACHIEVE THEIR GOOL. IF YOU ALL NOTICE VERY CAREFULLY THE SHARE MOVEMENT YOU CAN NOTICE THAT. THEY PUT A PURCHASE ORDER FOR  BIG QUANTITY @ LOW PRICE AND  THEY THEMSELVES MATCH THE BUYER  WITH A VERY SMALL QUANTITY IN MANY ORDERS. EXAMPLE  500 NOS DEVIDE IN 8 TO 10 ORDERS. WHEN  YOU SEE THAT IN THE MONITOR YOU GET PANIC AND THE SAME TIME THE SET BROCKERS DO THEIR PART USE MARGIN CALLING. THIS IS MY PERSONNEL JUDGMENT, MAYBE I AM WRONG. THINK TWICE BEFORE SELL. GD

13 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:37 pm

easthetic


Stock Trader
Appreciate the efforts of the genuine people who trying to  negate the strength of the baseless statements.

14 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:38 pm

easthetic


Stock Trader
Appreciate the efforts of the genuine people who trying to  negate the strength of the baseless statements.

15 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:41 pm

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Market will fall and fall. I am warning all my friends. Sell all your shares and book profits or losses.
Put your money to a FD.

You will understand me after many years.
I don't need to fight to prove my predictions. Results will show.


Maharaja.

16 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:11 am

Ryan Hudson


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Maharaja wrote:Market will fall and fall. I am warning all my friends. Sell all your shares and book profits or losses.
Put your money to a FD.

You will understand me after many years.
I don't need to fight to prove my predictions. Results will show.


Maharaja.
FD is not the solution, market will come back, resurgence is soon

17 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:22 pm

ranferdi

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Maharaja wrote:Market will fall and fall. I am warning all my friends. Sell all your shares and book profits or losses.
Put your money to a FD.

You will understand me after many years.
I don't need to fight to prove my predictions. Results will show.


Maharaja.

You better provide reasoning to prediction,,

http://::::THIS EMAIL DOESNT WORK.. PLEASE CONTACT ME ON FB ACCO

18 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:46 pm

DS Wijesinghe


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Maharaja, you seem to be clamouring for a market crash with a selfish motive to buy stocks at rock bottom prices to make thumping profits when it ultimately starts moving up. You may be correct to some extent and we might see an overall dip in the market during the rest of the year 2018

BUT If you are genuinely concerned about the hard earned money of your forum colleagues you need to give a logical analysis rather than writing your wishful thinking. It need not be a comprehensive analysis like the one I am pasting below. That is a very comprehensive analysis by an expert who predicted Bangladesh stock market to crash(I do not know whether it really happened in Bangladesh). Maharaja, Just share with us a simple analysis by you in a logical manner


 The reason as to why I believe a stock market(Bangladesh) crash is imminent (Part I)

by Asif Khan on Thursday, November 11 2010

Background to the issue at stake

Starting from mid 2009, the Bangladesh Stock Market has been experiencing a prolonged bull run. The market returns has been amongst the world's highest over the period. Even in 2010, only Sri Lanka (+110%) and Mongolia, has probably beaten our market where prices grew roughly by about 90%. Now while this sounds great, people frequently forget the risks of investment in such times of "irrational exuberance". Coming back to the point. I have been thinking for quite a while that the market will undergo a correction. However, for better or for worse the market stuck to its upward trajectory. But I believe that this has made the situation even riskier. Lets first look at what made the market go up in the first place.

What caused the market to act this way?

The first half of 2009 was a bad time for the capital market. Firstly, investor confidence in the economy was low following the 2 year stint of the caretaker government. But most importantly, the world was experiencing the phenomenon called the "global financial crisis". Even though Bangladesh is relatively less correlated with the global economy, most economists were projecting a bleak macro outlook. Consequently, stock prices suffered. From mid 2009 the situation started improving thanks to heavy investment in the capital market by state owned banks and financial institutions. This brought back the confidence in the capital market and since the stocks were at extremely cheap prices (I remember AB Bank trading at a trailing P/E of around 6) all stocks looked like a bargain. After that we saw positive surprises in our GDP growth rate (5.7% growth achieved despite global slowdown) and also corporate earnings. But the biggest factor that led to the current state of the capital market was what we call “excess liquidity". To explain that let me use bullet points.

1. Because of power and infrastructure shortages most entrepreneurs could not invest in the real sector (meaning industries ).
2. Bangladesh was having current account surpluses (thanks to huge remittance flows). So more money was coming in than going out.
3. Interest rates went down. 

So, it was not a good idea to get around 8.5% interest per year (before tax) when inflation was around 5-7%.So suddenly, people had a lot of idle money which they were unable to invest anywhere. Anywhere except the stock market that is. Thus the joyride of equities (stocks) began and that situation is still continuing. Because of this excess flow of funds by both general investors as well as institutions (Banks, NBFI's and Insurance companies), multiple attempts by the regulator failed to cool down the market. I can't blame anyone because no alternative investments were available. Plus, when you can earn 30% return in 7 days why would someone invest elsewhere?
Why I think that a reversal is imminent?
The simplest of reason is that nothing goes up forever. But since I am supposed to be an analyst in profession I need to do my job. 

1. Market P/E (trailing) is around 30 at the moment. This is probably amongst the highest in the world right now. High P/E's can only be justified when you expect superior earnings growth. But that is not the case here. The best companies in BD over the last 10 years have experienced earnings growth of about 20%. For 20% earnings average, the market P/E should be around 20 and not 30 (which it is at the moment).

2. The P/E is calculated using the earnings reported by the companies. However, not all of these earnings figures earnings. Specially for banks and non bank financial institutes a large portion of income is coming from one-off equity gains that might not be repeated in the future years.

3. Investor confidence is coming back in the real sector as seen by the indicators like loan disbursement, opening of LC's for capital machinery etc. If this trend continues then at least some money would come out of the capital market to the real economy and in the process share prices would fall.

4. Interest rates are going up. Just a few days ago 1 year fixed deposit rates were about 8.5%. Now it ranges from10%-10.5%. Since inflation is going up, we can be quite sure of further increases in interest rates. When that happens some funds will move from the capital market to the banking sector and other fixed income investments. I can probably list other reasons as well but since these are the major ones, we can ignore the less important ones. 
But I thought the macroeconomic outlook was improving?

Let me be VERY VERY be clear on one issue. There is a big "top down" (or in other words growth) story in Bangladesh. It is a small country with a large young population. By all probabilities (Inshallah) the economy will continue doing well and if there are advances made to solve the power and infrastructural bottlenecks then we are definitely going to grow at a higher trajectory (7-8%).I believe myself to be amongst the most optimistic people regarding the long term prospects of the country. Now from common logic Strong Macro economy,=Good corporate earnings=,Higher share prices. While this is true there is always a price for everything. Compared to a Dhaka College shirt I am surely going to pay more for a designer shirt made in Italy but if the price tag is unreasonable then it is not justified. We do not have to look very far. Even in
Vietnam
(a frontier market very similar to Bangladesh) a few years ago the stock market had tremendous performance. The whole idea was economic growth. But the market fell because the prices being paid for growth were not justified by fundamentals. Please go to the link below and choose the 5Y graph to see the Vietnam market performance.

When will the crash occur?

It is virtually impossible to predict a crash. The higher stock prices go up, the more confident investors become and the more risk they take. Right now we are at the peak of investor confidence due to which regulators cannot do anything to the market. So, the crash can happen in the next 1-2 month or it might even take 1-1.5 years. But we probably need a catalyst to dampen the investor confidence. Such possible catalysts could be1. Big investors and big institutions like banks and NBFI's getting out of the overvalued market.2. Any natural disaster (Happened in Pakistan recently. The flood there had a major impact on the share market. Pakistan market P/E is about 7 right now whereas Bangladesh is about 30).3. Political unrest in 2011.4. Lower than expected earning figures.

Can we expect a slow correction instead of a crash?

While it is possible, I would assign a very low probability to a slow correction. Why? Because, if that was the casethen investors would have started to move out of the market. Everybody understands that the market is overheated.However, everyone also thinks that they can earn another 15-20% and have the perfect exit. Unfortunately perfectexits are quite impossible. So, once a big downward movement starts everyone will just jump on the bandwagon.Our present situation has surprising similarities to the housing bubble that happened in the west. When housing prices skyrocketed (beyond logical limits) Wall Street knew very well that houses are overvalued. However, becauseeverybody assumed that house prices would just continue going up they should not lose out on the marginal profit.Now here we are doing the same thing. Almost all investors will tell you that stock prices are too high (compared toearnings off course) but only a handful are acting on the conclusion that they are making themselves due to"expectations" of greater returns.

What should my strategy be?

1. Risk averse investors can sell all their shares and wait for the market to come down.

2. Those with more appetite for risk can partially offload their shares and keep the rest of the money in defensive shares with solid fundamentals. Staying away from any company whose earnings depend on the capital marketwould be strongly advisable

source - http://www.scribd.com/doc/50682652/The-reason-as-to-why-I-believe-a-stock-market-crash-is-imminent

19 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED Yesterday at 8:41 am

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@easthetic wrote:Appreciate the efforts of the genuine people who trying to  negate the strength of the baseless statements.

Maharaja you are helping foreigners to earn money, our poor retailers are loosing their hard earn money, as I said foreign purchases are more than  selling. so market will never crash as Maharaja wished, I stand on my post that this down fall is created by some organized group including Maharaja, and some brokers also involved. They can`t do this every day market will turn in any movement. Already market is over sold. so Friends don't get panic and don't get caught to Maharaja`s gimmick. Shocked

20 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED Yesterday at 9:36 am

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Pandiths can preach but Results will Prove.




Maharaja

21 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED Yesterday at 9:58 am

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Maharaja wrote:Members love when I say Market will rise. But hate when I say it will fall.

Maharaja can see the future. And I see a bad future for this market.

Worst is yet to arrive. Sell now and disappear. Market will fall a great fall. 
Can be the biggest fall.

My advise - sell everything- whole portfolio !

Maharaja
why don't you start reading horoscope? or affraid become president's personal astrologist? if you can see the future can you tell me the winning numbers of today's Lottery draw????? bounce bounce bounce bounce bounce

22 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED Yesterday at 10:17 am

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ruwan326 wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:Members love when I say Market will rise. But hate when I say it will fall.

Maharaja can see the future. And I see a bad future for this market.

Worst is yet to arrive. Sell now and disappear. Market will fall a great fall. 
Can be the biggest fall.

My advise - sell everything- whole portfolio !

Maharaja
why don't you start reading horoscope? or affraid become president's personal astrologist? if you can see the future can you tell me the winning numbers of today's Lottery draw????? bounce bounce bounce bounce bounce
ATLEAST CAN YOU PREDICT WHO WILL WIN THE FIFA WORLD CUP.

23 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED Yesterday at 10:33 am

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Next support level - 6077





Maharaja

24 Don't be a day dreamer Yesterday at 2:25 pm

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Maharaja wrote:Next support level - 6077





Maharaja
6200 my friend Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
http://ashaphillip.net/wp-content/uploa ... 18.pdf.pdf

25 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED Yesterday at 2:41 pm

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Maharaja wrote:Next support level - 6077





Maharaja
Maharaja what happened you & your gang even today worked very hard to keep the market down but the last moment market has turned  positive, as I said  you can`t keep the market down  for very day. Hope this upward trend will continue. Laughing Laughing

26 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED Yesterday at 2:43 pm

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
6200 will not support. 
After 6200 breaks you will understand about Maharaja.


Maharaja

27 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED Yesterday at 6:26 pm

easthetic


Stock Trader
@Eugine Fernando wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:Next support level - 6077





Maharaja
Maharaja what happened you & your gang even today worked very hard to keep the market down but the last moment market has turned  positive, as I said  you can`t keep the market down  for very day. Hope this upward trend will continue. :lol: :lol:
Ok.
According to you At what point index will have a proper support.

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@easthetic wrote:
@Eugine Fernando wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:Next support level - 6077





Maharaja
Maharaja what happened you & your gang even today worked very hard to keep the market down but the last moment market has turned  positive, as I said  you can`t keep the market down  for very day. Hope this upward trend will continue. Laughing Laughing
Ok.
According to you At what point index will have a proper support.
If you notice last two to three weeks CSE Disclosures there were lots of director purchases of many companies, if the directors have trust on their companies we can expect a market turn around in any movement, I think it has started yesterday. This  is my personal opinion, before buy you study the market movement and decide. GD

29 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED Today at 10:05 am

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@easthetic wrote:
@Eugine Fernando wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:Next support level - 6077





Maharaja
Maharaja what happened you & your gang even today worked very hard to keep the market down but the last moment market has turned  positive, as I said  you can`t keep the market down  for very day. Hope this upward trend will continue. :lol: :lol:
Ok.
According to you At what point index will have a proper support.
nobody can tell perfect support level.  depends on the conditions from time to time. right now I can tell you that 6200 will not support and immediate support is 6077.

The way ASI moves to 6077 will tell us if it will break or not.
However ASI overall direction is downward heading towards 5000 levels.


Maharaja

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