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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Charts & Graphs » Technical Journal Book of NC

Technical Journal Book of NC

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1 Technical Journal Book of NC on Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:17 pm

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis
First topic message reminder :

The objective of this thread is for application,record keeping, review, evaluate and study of my own technical readings. So, in long term it benefited in making sharp our analysis throughout time to time evaluation and mistakes. This thread is for educational purpose only.
Any one can free to comment,post their own readings, and discuss, so we can learn altogether. And I do not wish to give any buy or sell recommendation through out this thread.


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

201 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:31 am

glad


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
What do you think the ASI will come down to if it starts to drop?

202 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:00 am

NC


Expert - Technical Analysis
@glad wrote:What do you think the ASI will come down to if it starts to drop?
@ Glad, still the ASI moving in blue colured channel. Hence, nothing is confirmed yet for a reversal. As I said above, for me I want at least to be hit 7250.
On the other hand if it clearly break 7000 (23%), I'm looking at 38.2% level; 6900-6850. And I'm expecting a flat correction less than 50%.

203 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Mon Dec 01, 2014 9:22 am

glad


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@NC wrote:
@glad wrote:What do you think the ASI will come down to if it starts to drop?
@ Glad, still the ASI moving in blue colured channel. Hence, nothing is confirmed yet for a reversal. As I said above, for me I want at least to be hit 7250.
On the other hand if it clearly break 7000 (23%), I'm looking at 38.2% level; 6900-6850. And I'm expecting a flat correction less than 50%.  
NC.
Thanks for your thoughts

204 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:16 pm

RPPA


Expert
Expert
@NC wrote:
@glad wrote:What do you think the ASI will come down to if it starts to drop?
@ Glad, still the ASI moving in blue colured channel. Hence, nothing is confirmed yet for a reversal. As I said above, for me I want at least to be hit 7250.
On the other hand if it clearly break 7000 (23%), I'm looking at 38.2% level; 6900-6850. And I'm expecting a flat correction less than 50%.  

NC

We are approaching your 7,250. Very Happy

Hopefully now NC will be bit confident then.

205 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:48 pm

Gainer


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@NC wrote:ASI (27/11/2014) - Intraday Outlook

Its hard to identify a positive sign in this intraday bear trend. 24th morning extreme panic selling or a manipulation has done (orange circled) but soon again it was up around 100 correcting it. And still keep its moving in rose colored channel.
However, it could identify some two positive signs:
1. Price moving between UML & ML
2. RSI negative momentum/trend line break, which cannot be seen at the graph. Hence, its good sign of a potential trend reversal in favor of bullish.

However, ultimate result expecting from above two is the break of 7200-7250 in coming days. And it'll give a another direction, a good direction for ASI hopefully.
And if there isn't a bad news untill the break of 7200 - 7250 its a win for bulls. So, lets hope..!! Very Happy
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]


-GL
Very Happy
NC Thanks,  Now your Execllent target already break and what about your next Target ASI ?

206 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:33 pm

RPPA


Expert
Expert
@RPPA wrote:Good Job. NC.

For me the last kick in friday had some force in it.So i expect monday to be very good.But i have my doubts on tuesday from my technical analysis.I expect people to realise some profits & later will gather steam slowly.

For me now the the political crossovers will not have big negative impact (provided the big fellow does not sell). It it happens again it will in a smaller scale.

RPPA
 
Now keep the highlighted part in mind too.  Very Happy


_________________
“It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get
extraordinary results.”

207 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:55 pm

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis
Now, as per my view 7300 -7350 is a Resistant. So, in coming days it could be again Red.
However, as I told ealier ASI has entered to potential reversal zone. Hence, I expecting some HPP, till it break 7070. If HPP activated, ASI at least hit 7400 again based on today up. (For activation it should go down again. Most probably above 7100 ) So lets wait and see. At least now bulls can take some breath and fight..

Chrz
Very Happy


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

208 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Tue Dec 02, 2014 3:28 pm

Gainer

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@NC wrote:Now, as per my view 7300 -7350 is a Resistant. So, in coming days it could be again Red.
However, as I told ealier ASI has entered to potential reversal zone. Hence, I expecting some HPP, till it break 7070. If HPP activated, ASI at least hit 7400 again based on today up. (For activation it should go down again. Most probably above 7100 ) So lets wait and see. At least now bulls can take some breath and fight..

Chrz
Very Happy
Thanks NC your calculation Execllent and what will happen next

209 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:19 pm

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis
@Gainer wrote:
@NC wrote:Now, as per my view 7300 -7350 is a Resistant. So, in coming days it could be again Red.
However, as I told ealier ASI has entered to potential reversal zone. Hence, I expecting some HPP, till it break 7070. If HPP activated, ASI at least hit 7400 again based on today up. (For activation it should go down again. Most probably above 7100 ) So lets wait and see. At least now bulls can take some breath and fight..

Chrz
Very Happy
Thanks NC your calculation Execllent and what will happen next
Today it completed 50% retracement. Untill the break of 7100, its safe.
Now we've to wait and see how much it'll come down... Very Happy


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

210 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:34 pm

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

211 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:54 pm

RPPA


Expert
Expert
Tomorrow will be a dull day. But there is a possibility of some buying pressure in the late afternoon. If not this negativity will move to Thursday too.

But din't expect a big plunge again. Very Happy


_________________
“It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get
extraordinary results.”

212 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:25 am

piras

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Starts with green, Don't know what will be the end..

213 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Thu Dec 04, 2014 4:36 pm

Gainer

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
NC tomorrow is the dull day?

214 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Thu Dec 04, 2014 4:52 pm

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis
@Gainer wrote:NC tomorrow is the dull day?
Me too hoping so..
But something need to be happen soonly may be 2mrw on either way.  (May be Red)
Res:7300 (Strong Res)
Sup: 7250 (Weak Sup)
Momentum getting weaker, and I'm hoping some Reds in coming days...
If it was Red nothing worry, its a good sign..
Very Happy


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

215 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:02 pm

goldenboy

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi NC,

I believe foreign activity will be key factor tomorrow and if there will be good positive sentiment from foreigners, CSE will break 7300 tomorrow.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t39627-this-week-market-behaviour-neutral#244433

216 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:19 pm

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis
Foreign sentiment was not change.. I think it was all time bull this year..
And I don't think also domestic bull sentiment has been changed yet.
I think if 7250 is break market will be red.
Who knows lets wait and see.. Sometimes I may be wrong..
Very Happy


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

217 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:41 pm

ruwa


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
NC,
I wanna be a technical expert like you.
Can you give some tips, resources to acheive it. Thanx.

218 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:48 pm

NZ BOY

avatar
Moderator
@NC wrote:
@Gainer wrote:NC tomorrow is the dull day?
Me too hoping so..
But something need to be happen soonly may be 2mrw on either way.  (May be Red)
Res:7300 (Strong Res)
Sup: 7250 (Weak Sup)
Momentum getting weaker, and I'm hoping some Reds in coming days...
If it was Red nothing worry, its a good sign..
Very Happy
Thanks NC

219 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:54 pm

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis
@ruwa wrote:NC,
I wanna be a technical expert like you.
Can you give some tips, resources to acheive it. Thanx.
First go through some Theories..
1.Choas theory, Dow theory and get some idea.
2.Next study some chart patterns.
3.Next, Elliot wave Theory and Harmonic patterns.

And all time you've to read charts. Its the only way. Don't use any indicator first. Try to read the naked chart. (just a zigzag, moving average if wanted). And if you understand it. I'm sure you'll throw away many indicators. Read charts untill it talks to you...
And keep charts simple. (KISS-Keep it simple stupid)
http://www.sharemarketschool.com/category/market-analysis/
http://stockcharts.com/

Very Happy
-GL


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

220 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Thu Dec 04, 2014 6:04 pm

ruwa


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
NC
Thanx, Thanx hell of a lot that was really helpful.
thanx

221 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Thu Dec 04, 2014 6:47 pm

goldenboy

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks NC.
Let's see tomorrow.

222 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Thu Dec 04, 2014 6:55 pm

slmarket2


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
thnks

223 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:21 pm

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis
ASI is now ranging below 7300 and above 7200.
Hope Monday ASI will be Green again..
Very Happy


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

224 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Fri Dec 05, 2014 7:36 pm

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis
Weekend Song for this week.. Exclamation Exclamation Exclamation  Very Happy


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

225 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Sat Dec 06, 2014 8:28 am

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis
Govt. oil price cut is a white elephant/its a joke:

Monday LIOC could drop due to this news. However, many panic sellers're now out of the market.

From Global perspective:
Oil price slashed from 107.10 (06/2014) to 65.6 (Last closed price), which is a significant drop of around 40%.
Thus OPEC has officially decided to not to cut the oil production, saying market will determine the price itself.

The main factors beyond this drops;
- US now moving to alternative/renewable energies, and their consumption is reducing year by year.
- Slow down economy of China, and recession of EU still continued. Hence, the demand has reduced.
- US want to plunged Russian economy, by this price drop, as Russia is the 2nd largest oil exporter in the world.

Hence, there's a good possibility of global oil price drop moreover in next year.

Local Perspective:

This the financial outlook of CPC.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
The treasury is expecting a loss. But, CPC saying they recorded LKR 3 Bn profit for this year. However, their loss accumulation is still there and plus a huge debt for State Banks amonut exceeding LKR 400 Bn. Comparing with the the debts for banks LKR 400Bn, this year profit LKR 3bn is a piece of joke/shit. Obviously, its not even marginally sufficient. Hence, its a problem that Govt. how long they'll continue this price reduction Question

Price Drop:
Due to election, Govt reduced the price, unless we cannot even think of it, comparing above CPC facts.
Now Govt, reduced oil prices two times recently.
95 Petrol: 170 -5 -7= 158 (7% reduction)
Diesel (LSD): 145 -5 -7= 133 (8% reduction)

But world oil prices drop around 40%. But still less than 7%-9% reduced by Govt.

CPC forwards their contracts:
CPC forward their contracts exceeding another year with Singapore company, based on fixed average monthly price in Singapore market plus a considerable premium. So, its obvious that CPC/ Govt. would not take the direct benefit of price reduction. (http://www.sundaytimes.lk/141026/news/oil-prices-falling-but-cpc-signs-long-term-deal-124699.html)

LIOC perspective:
Revenue growth YoY - 11%
Annullazied profit this year- LKR 4.7bn
NAV- LKR 42/-
EPS (annualized)- LKR 8.8/-
P/E - 6.3
Valuation - LKR 91.2/-

Conclusion:
- Big potential in global oil price drop continuation  in next year.
- Global oil prices slashed 40% but, Govt, reduced oil retail prices by 7%-9%.
- CPC wouldn't take the direct benefit of oil price drop due to forward of contracts.
- CPC having LKR 400bn debt. This year profit Lkr 3bn. Price reduction is not afforadable for CPC. Hence, expecting oil price will increase again after the election.
- Solid earnings, revenue and profit growth of LIOC.

Collect LIOC at key support levels...
Very Happy
-NC
"So keep Clam and collect LIOC"


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

226 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Sun Dec 07, 2014 7:50 am

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis
As many people talking about bad news and political uncertainty, I decided to write some sort of my views.

Affects of news in stock market

We all know market moves because of an imbalance, caused by various situations and conditions. Due to an importance of a news market adjusts, known as volatility. There’re various ways how volatility takes its direction in each market condition.

Bull market:
Positive news - Raises the bull run but not always.
Negative news – Short term/ temporary drop in market. This mostly happens due to panic selling and some profit takings. However, its last for a short period as, buyers (investors) collect and even sellers (swing traders) also collect with the dip.

Bear market:
Postive news - Short term/ temporary up in market. This mostly happens due to some’re rush to buy ( As same as panic selling). However, its last for a short period, as sellers lined up and sells when market up.
Negative news- Raises bear but not always.

Ranging market:
Ranging market is a balanced market. That balanced is need to be break by a un balanced force. Hence, depends on the importance of the news market will take the direction/trend.
Positive news- Starts bulls run.
Negative news- Starts bear.

So, comparing with CSE, market is bull. Due to some named bad news market drops, and its hope to be a tempory drop. And it proved by foreign bullish sentiment as they were the net buyers.
 
Political Uncertainty

In current condition in SL, whether there’s a actual political uncertainty ? Its better to find out and decide.
What do we known by a political uncertainty affects stock market. Affects stock market I wrote it again.
Stock market mainly drives by economical factors. Hence, any political uncertainty affects on economy is named to be a political uncertainty, can affect on stock market.
For example those’re political uncertainties in stock market,
- Armed conflicts.
- Civil war/ guerilla attacks conditions.
- Organized crimes.
- A Govt. which doesn’t obey law, order and justice.
Apart from above.
- Weak economical policies of a ruling party. (Business averse/ deflation/hyper inflation policies)

So, comparing with SL situation there’s no a considerable political uncertainty which could have big impact on market. The only political uncertainty is the uncertainty for UPFA and MR. And that uncertainty cannot be impact on economy. And it’s the most important thing. Good govern is needed for a better economy.
For the CSE manipulation the retail/small investors also responsible. Their panic buying/selling is open the door for manipulators. And we shouldn’t open a door for them.

Thnx
NC
Very Happy


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

227 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:13 am

aran

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
ur right NC

228 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:16 am

aran

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
NC,now i am reading JAPANES CANDLESTICK CHARTING
TECHNIQUES-STEVE NISON and ordered for Technical Analysis Explained 5th edition-Martin J. Pring ,NC please recommend ur favorite book in technical analysis Very Happy

229 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:46 am

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis
@ Aran,
many books in technical reading tells same thing and its doubtful whether its really technicals. I'm not discouraging you in reading but don't belive it at once.
There're hundreds of ways making money from stock market, but there only two ways of loosing money, inadequate of analysis and/or wrong apply of a strategy.
The best reader is the market it self. Read bare charts. At least it may take a year for proper identification. Another year for proper application. Then you'll learn many things from your mistakes and give you good experience. Its like a doctor/ lawyer practicing in his particular field. Year by year his value appreciate, bcz of his experience, same as here.
Take some basics from resources (books/internet) and develop your own strategy.
(I don't know your background but its better to read some economics books/fundamental (Macro/microeconomical) books its develope your knowledge. Its much worth.)
(Tech reading is a time taking process and theory and practicals should be done simultaneously. Most important is the practicals. But keep in mind in your practical/learning period DO NOT put your all real money. First go with some few unwanted bugs and do it.)
- GL
Very Happy


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

230 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:28 pm

aran

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@NC wrote:@ Aran,
many books in technical reading tells same thing and its doubtful whether its really technicals. I'm not discouraging you in reading but don't belive it at once.
There're hundreds of ways making money from stock market, but there only two ways of loosing money, inadequate of analysis and/or wrong apply of a strategy.
The best reader is the market it self. Read bare charts. At least it may take a year for proper identification. Another year for proper application. Then you'll learn many things from your mistakes and give you good experience. Its like a doctor/ lawyer practicing in his particular field. Year by year his value appreciate, bcz of his experience, same as here.
Take some basics from resources (books/internet) and develop your own strategy.
(I don't know your background but its better to read some economics books/fundamental (Macro/microeconomical) books its develope your knowledge. Its much worth.)
(Tech reading is a time taking process and theory and practicals should be done simultaneously. Most important is the practicals. But keep in mind in your practical/learning period DO NOT put your all real money. First go with some few unwanted bugs and do it.)
- GL
Very Happy



thanks i am a cima student:D Very Happy

231 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Tue Jan 06, 2015 2:46 pm

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis
I wish a Happy New Year for all SLEF members..!!!
This a my first post in this year after weeks of silence...


Global Oil price Review: Where it'll stop ?
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]" />

Above chart is a monthly chart of US Oil. According to last year, it break a big trend line which 16year old, since from 1998 November. It has been tested time to time in 2001 and 2008. However, at 2014 end it was break. now its trading around USD 49 per barrel. Now question is where it'll find a support.
As per technical view there's a support around 40-37.
OPEC saying their not going cut their output unless price goes below USD 20 per barrel. Comparing last year highest price 113, its a 57% drop of oil price in globally. And, this is the worst crash of oil market after 2008..

-NC
Very Happy


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

232 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Mon Jan 12, 2015 2:12 pm

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis
Technically, today correction seems to be end at 50% Retracement at 7550. And momentum is again raising. Hope Green day on 2mrw. Very Happy


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

233 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Tue Jan 13, 2015 8:36 am

NC

avatar
Expert - Technical Analysis
Its sad to say that, now I've no any confidence and a trust about SLEF any more.
SLEF has became a political forum, less discussion of stocks and economy. And more biased on political parties views. And most importantly admins act as deaf and blinds.This's now becoming a worthless forum as admins do not taking any steps to restore the objectives of the SLEF...
- NC


_________________
" Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. So, If you can't deal with emotion, get out of trading. "

234 Re: Technical Journal Book of NC on Tue Jan 13, 2015 8:40 am

OzTRADER

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
NC - PLEASE GIVE A FEW OPINIONS ON THE STOCK PICS WHICH ARE BETTER

1.BLI
2.AGSTA
3.AAF
4.BIL
5.MHDL
6.FLCH

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